Swan Songs
Market Volatility • Big Tech/Big AI • End of the 30% Cut • Paramount + HBO • Netflix's Walk • Tech Pubs Plummet • More...
As I write this, we’re wrapping up a rough week on the stock market. It seems like every day brings a new piece of news that jacks up the volatility. Perhaps, we’re looking for "Black Swans" when it’s the white ones right there in front of us…
⚠️ There Are Signs...
Private Credit, CapEx, Interest Rates, War, and AI Disruption – oh my!
The Inner Ring…
💰 Increasingly, Big Tech Owns Big AI
The latest OpenAI and Anthropic rounds drill it home...
💇 The Death of the 30% Cut
Google ends the Play Store insanity, putting the pressure on Apple...
I Note…
📺 Paramount+ Plus HBO Max
Assuming the deal gets done, we’re clearly looking at a combination of the two streaming services. But what will that actually look like? It will be big — perhaps 200M subscribers in total (similar to Disney+, just behind Netflix) — but also a bit all over the place. David Ellison has said that HBO will remain as is, but will it be buried under the weight of this newly combined service? One which will now include the true king of all media — the NFL — thanks to CBS. Also, they’ll control all of March Madness (well, next year, presumably). What will they call this? HBO Max clearly has the stronger brand, but they’ll want to highlight the new Paramount content too? HBO Max+? Paramount Max? ParaMax? I will once again just throw out the idea that I long have (because it’s good): call it Showtime. Paramount controls that brand, but it has faded in the age of streaming. Yet it’s such a good name for a streaming service! Would it be awkward to have HBO be a part of Showtime? Yes, but only for us olds. Do it, David! (As an aside, what on Earth is Peacock going to do now?) [NYT]
🎟️ Netflix Knew Right Away They Were Walking Away
So says Ted Sarandos in a sit down with Lucas Shaw only a few days after his deal to buy Warner Bros blew up (which he toasted goodbye with a glass of wine). Interesting that one aspect they didn’t expect was Larry Ellison personally agreeing to backstop the debt. I mean, it is an insane amount of debt, but he also presumably won’t have to backstop it for that long — just ask FCC Chair Brendan Carr who expects the deal to be approved "quickly" (he doesn’t decide that, though may have some say due to the networks involved) — still, there is a lot going on in the world at the moment! Sarandos also thinks Paramount will have to cut $16B quickly to try to handle the debt load (which is far more than they’ve modeled). He also noted that while Netflix is no longer buying a company with baked in theatrical distribution, the discussions when they were going forward with the deal could lead to more "cool things" to do between Netflix and theatrical (duh). It does feel like he’s a bit disingenuous when talking about the political angle of all this (beyond the Carr quote which feels very "fix was in", the fact that Trump ghosted him at the White House isn’t a great look, and undoubtedly wasn’t a good omen). Great ending here too. When asked if an asset like this might not come around again, Sarandos replied: "Possibly. Or if you look at the history of Warner Bros...." True and fair enough! [Bloomberg 🔒]
📉 Tech Pubs Get Scroogled
Even if these numbers are just directionally accurate, they’re brutal. Some sites down 90+% in terms of traffic from Google, many more down over 50%. Why? 3 main culprits, it seems: 1) the expansion of 'AI Overviews' in Google Search. 2) The rise of Reddit in results for queries that used to bring these players a ton of evergreen traffic. 3) The actual use of AI services, like ChatGPT, by consumers. If this traffic was your only real lifeline, you’re screwed, of course. But you always were. Something was always going to shift the landscape, just as it always does. You can’t be reliant on just one source of traffic. Which is easier said than done when it’s Google. [Growtika]
I Quote…
"I don’t understand how they’re going to live up to the 30 movie commitment and make those be 30 good theatrical releases. If I was a betting person, I would suggest that it seems likely that they’re going to not do that."
— Greg Peters, the other CEO of Netflix, not holding back in his thoughts on the Warner Bros deal, now that it’s in the hands of Paramount Skydance. "A bunch of people are going to lose their jobs."
I Wrote…
☢️ AI Am Become Death
As Anthropic blows up their potential AI usage, the Pentagon goes nuclear...
💻 MacBook Neo: Whoa
Apple’s newest Mac is priced to move...
🔫 AI in a Time of War
A chat about Anthropic vs. the Department of War, the state of AI within Apple, and Netflix walking away from Warner Bros...
Asides…
Speaking of tying your content business to a tech giant, News Corp has a new licensing deal with Meta for AI. What could possibly go wrong? The same thing that always does! [WSJ 🔒]
Interesting timing for Megan Ellison to be revving the engines at Annapurna again. Might it end up as the indie arm of MountDance WarBroDisco? Some people have long wondered, just saying… [THR]
Unrelated, but related, quite literally, it sounds like Oracle is on the verge of massive layoffs. Which is sad but inevitable due to the the company trying to stay in the CapEx race. [Bloomberg 🔒]
Meanwhile, Jensen Huang can’t stop pointing out that NVIDIA’s investment in OpenAI is $30B, not $100B. You hear that, Wall Street? [CNBC]
Perplexity + Coreweave! [Axios]
iPic, which is a premium, small movie theater chain has filed for bankruptcy — for a second time. Might be looking for a tech buyer, just saying… [THR]
Why the 'MacBook Neo' name? Because it’s "fun and friendly, and fresh" per Apple. No need to overthink it, I guess. [TechRadar]
It’s buried at the end, but Sony pulling back their PlayStation games from PC seems directly related to Microsoft about to double-down on the PC for the next (perhaps last) phase of Xbox, no? A retreat back to exclusives? [Bloomberg 🔒]
Capcom, meanwhile, it pivoting to more PC for gaming. [PC Gamer]
Intel’s board chair is stepping down after 17 years of service, which seems long overdue given how Intel has fared during that span… [Reuters]
An Android desktop mode when you plug your phone into a monitor looks legitimately interesting. How fun/cool would it be to have an actual PC in your pocket all the time when you need it? I wish Apple would do this! (They would never. They don’t even let you boot macOS on the iPad!) [Verge]
I Spy…
Alongside the announcement of the MacBook Neo, many were quick to point to the old famous Steve Jobs quotes that Apple can’t make cheap laptops — remember "netbooks"? — because they refuse to ship "junk". The quick clip below on the topic is just great. Look at how young Tim Cook looks! The ease at which they laugh at the question about market share versus the PC. This was an Apple having fun.
We’ll see what the reviewers — and actual users of the Neo think, but it certainly doesn’t look like junk, despite the great, low price point.
I’m glad to see that Jobs Q&A video circulating again. Those sessions were common at Apple events back then, but aren’t part of the keynote videos that are readily available. I’m sorry in part because they’re interesting Steve Jobs stuff that’s inaccessible, but also because if they were still around, a couple of them would show me asking him questions.